The Individual Mind

I have long noted that “The Everything Bubble” has been used to describe our era’s financially unjustifiable malinvestment into the stock and bond markets, resulting in nosebleed over-valuations, that must correct again at some point. While certainly true and potentially catastrophic for the finances of persons, businesses and governments, that is too narrow a scope for EVERYTHING.

This morning’s line of thought started when I read the above linked article about “greenwashing” businesses and investment instruments to make them socially acceptable per today’s norms. To fail the litmus test of the day is to face investor withdrawal and societal boycott for “unacceptable” views or practices. When the loud cultural demand is for “green, ” carbon neutral, ESG (Environment, Social, corporate Governance), etc. then apparently you can just label yourself as such and go about your business under the false pretense in order to extract a benefit, or to satisfy a group with which you don’t agree but find too costly to oppose. Perhaps the demands and expectations are unreasonable and unjustified. Maybe they are coercive and silly. Maybe it is just a very loud minority that must be appeased. Maybe you just play along, hoping that the trend winds will shift soon. Maybe deceit is so baked into society that the default setting is to mislead others rather than operate under transparency. Maybe all are true. Maybe these forever extant, and often disguised, societal wars are just more technologically visible today – the wars for profits, prestige, power, the advance of personal preferences and agenda upon everyone else regardless of harms and costs. Caveman instincts with the new millennial toolkit.

The “washing,” the misrepresentation, the deceit is much more widespread than just within the financial sector. The “organic” foods example comes to mind. Food is all carbon-based, and so, literally, definitionally organic. But, we all know that those demanding organic foods (socially, or as a consumer) expect this to mean non-GMO, non-pesticided, environmentally friendly, or what not. But when the label is slapped on, some people will buy it who might not have. And others who might have actively boycotted or created a public relations issue now won’t… despite the false pretense of the label.

The spread of deceit can be seen as academically under-achieving kids are pushed through school and handed a diploma… despite their eighth grade reading comprehension. It’s the participation ribbon, the increasingly meaningless and devalued titles and degrees into their adulthood. This is a crux of failure that defines and corrupts our era – that of devaluing, or mis-valuing, EVERYTHING.

Today’s reality is that humans tolerate and fear calling out that which is a lie. We do it in our cultures, governments, finances, educational systems, professions, media streams, relationships. Why? To cheat and manipulate each other to our own benefit? Or because it is demanded by social, political and financial forces that would target us for speaking truth to power? Or because it is psychologically soothing and easier to lie to ourselves and others than to perform root analyses, develop improvement plans and act? Is it just the easy shortcut? Are we even aware that we are often frauds? What harm do we do to ourselves and others by playing along with those misrepresentations? And how large can the harms become when they are perpetrated and permitted on national and global scales? How much human misery can be traced back to “just going along” with the prevailing fads, distractions, manipulations and lies of the day? Are we a planet of the self-deluded or delusional?

How can humans progress when real value, reliable information and solid foundations cannot be discovered, promoted, shared and built upon? How far from true North, or precise reality (as it can best be discovered), have we drifted in every aspect of our existences – individually and societally? How much of a value bubble currently exists? The better question is, “what is not a value bubble (aka a lie, misrepresentation, exaggeration,…)?” Maybe nothing is spared. Degrees, credentials, currencies, “authorities,” “experts,” “journalism,” “friends,” investments, debt and derivatives into the quadrillions of dollars. What percentage of each category of Life is over-valued, misrepresented, in a bubble that is due to pop, is a lie, is a malinvestment of resources, and potentially causes harm?

I do not take the nihilist view that there is no good, no truth, no value. Maybe it’s a realist (or Stoicist?) view that Good, Truth and Value exist but not to the degree and in the places you would be led (or lead yourself) to believe. These must be mined, filtered, culled, discerned, discriminated, discovered. Then appreciated, valued, promoted, nurtured. That takes work, thought, action, analysis, energy, determination, self-education, investigation. (Lots of lists, there. Sorry. But, get to work!)

The obstacles to such a tedious process may be simply working to feed oneself and family, meeting the basic needs of life, and left with little time or energy for anything else. Additionally, we are often lulled into complacency by the instant gratifications of tech, low-yield distractions, feel-good substances which offer the easier path to pass the days. And certainly, there is a purposeful effort in many Lies and Liars to obfuscate details, designs, costs and consequences. Those are the nefarious parasites among us: individual, corporate and government.

Despite the costs inherent in the process of discerning true values, the costs of operating under mis-valuation and misrepresentation are incalculable across every aspect of life. In addition to the potential financial wastes and losses, how much of our lives may be misspent pursuing that which we misunderstand? Investments, relationships, career, dogma, politics, emotion, anger, fear, inappropriate reactivity, poor decisions, lost opportunity for self-development. The future cannot be seen. Our best efforts to prepare for it are to use good information now to make decisions (investments) towards it. Misvalued information, investments and paths now can only lead to future loss, regret and pain. What is the correlation between today’s lie and the theft of tomorrow’s peace?

As we look about us, we might ask ourselves what part of that which touches me is real and of value? Who and what around me adds value rather than depletes and attempts to deceive me? What (and who) is in a bubble and needs to be reset to true valuations? Where am I inappropriately invested in time, money, energy? (Maybe I sit at my computer, clicking around, trying to figure out the world too much?!) Which information sources can be trusted, and to what degree? Which labels and narratives are just that… without substance or justification? How are they being used to mislead, exploit, control or derive an unjust profit?

To whom do I owe transparency, openness, honesty, value? Certainly to those with whom I have made or desire that reciprocal, mutually beneficial relationship – personally and professionally. Most uncomfortably of all, I owe it to myself. Certainly, it is not owed to those that would harm, rob, coerce and defraud me. Those I must separate myself from, and perhaps work to expose.

Ultimately, the valuation problem distills to a demand for Honesty and Truth – basic existential human values – just to begin an assessment, which will still be subject to human error, a best guess. The disregard for those values across our species has led to the mis-valuation of EVERYTHING. These tenets, which are under-valued as simplistic and optional aspects of a disposable Morality, serve as supports for the fundamental fabric of our existence, our relationships, economics, and human progress.

Spend the time and energy to find and offer true valuations such that your investments of time, energy, money and relationships provide a return rather than a loss, a fulfillment rather than regret.

As an anesthesiologist, and a proponent of free markets, I’ve been interested in ways to promote and join transparent and low-cost health services movements for a number of years. Direct Primary Care (DPC), and transparently priced surgery centers, like Surgery Center of Oklahoma (SCO), are making great strides to increase competition, drive down costs for patients, and offer improved quality and service.

Organizations like the Association of American Physicians and Surgeons (AAPS), and the Free Market Medicine Association (FMMA), are on the forefront of promoting the physician-patient relationship while stripping out the low- and non-value bureaucracies inherent in government and most corporate institutions (e.g. the administrative burdens of insurance companies, Medicare, large health care entities that buy up and impede smaller practices while the patients’ bills keep rising at rates far exceeding general inflation).

One particular barrier to competition in health care markets is Certificate of Need Laws. AAPS held its annual conference this past month, this year in Pittsburgh, PA. I was asked to offer a 30-minute presentation on the topic, which I’ll link to here. (I’m a little slow on my presentation style, and if you choose to listen, I’d recommend adjusting the playback speed to at least 1.2X.)

ADDENDUM: In the presentation, I mention the Foundation for Economic Education’s (FEE) chart that tracked the growth of physicians versus administrators. Its original source was from the Kaiser Family Foundation. I’ve seen sites that have argued the administrator growth rate is probably closer to 800%, and justified in our era of technology. I wouldn’t expend my energy opposing the former claim, but definitely disagree on any valid justification. Certainly, the rise in health care costs and insurance premiums make their own argument.

“Lower Your Expectations!”

“You’ll own nothing and be happy.”

I came across a thought-inspiring blog this morning, “Marketing the Decline,” which prompts some exploration.

You are being lulled (or demoralized) into complacency as your systems are failing (and/or are purposefully being failed) through ideologies, hate, anger, resentment, incompetence. This is witnessed in current issues of supply chain logistics, product/service availability and quality, employment, finance, economy, currency inflation/devaluation, education system costs and failures, foreign policy ineptitude, the breakdown of national and local discourse, societal intolerance of everything and everyone, and the deterioration across the entire spectrum of political structures. Certainly, these are not new problems, but appear to not only be accelerating, but sold as The New Normal. The Great Reset.

I posit that You are not only the enemy of, but also the food and wealth source for, the Well-Established, the Power Elite, Big Media, Big Tech, the Global Control-Lusters. Your sovereignty, your choice, your personal preferences, your values, your goals, your family, your individually determined life, your MIND, … these are highly resented impediments to Agenda, Central Planning and Control which must be eradicated. There will be no end of Crises rolled out by design or exploitation to keep you afraid, compliant, coerced, manipulated, and managed for the benefit of those that live very far above you – economically, politically, socially, pseudo-intellectually.

This will continue to be marketed under the guise of benefit to you, to Society, to Earth. Any opposition to The Narrative will continue to be attacked, mocked, marginalized, vilified. As in every historical example, societal controls only ever drive benefits and wealth in one direction – up the Pyramid of Power, where the goods and pleasures accumulate, where the exceptions for The Select are unlimited, and where the ultimate and absolute failures of every promise are shielded from any accountability.

Reject the group think. Reject the controls. Question every declaration, Narrative and Catastrophe-of-the-Moment with a critical and discriminating mind. Step out of the path of their Hurricanes of Hysteria, letting them pass you by without taking the bait of emotional reactivity, anger, fear, divisive Othering. Refuse to participate. Decline to give those manipulators the power, authority, obedience and belief that they seek.

Progress does not lie in conforming to mandates and calculated media distortions, but in a billion de-centralized daily human challenges, conversations and interactions of spontaneous and voluntary order that find ways that are better, peaceful, mutually beneficial, problem-solving and more efficient and economical of time, costs and energies.

Many apparently believe that the fullness of human development lies underneath the eternally accumulating dictates and controls of bureaucrats, technocrats, intelligentsia, and the Too Big To Fail systems that are continually being fed, maintained, enlarged, bailed out and protected – all at your expense.

I urge you to consider that human progress is best found by creating better, adaptive, technologically conscious, and more efficient processes, systems and relationships which compete with, and potentially make obsolete, those suffocating, wasteful, dishonest, immoral and destructive systems of forced order and compliance that benefit the few at the expense of the rest.

Rather than the defeatism of lowering your expectations, the voluntary and mutually beneficial interaction of humankind is the Optimism for Tomorrow that should be marketed. Of course, that true progress threatens to level the Power Pyramid. They will never endorse or support You or Us in that endeavor. So, don’t wait for the invitation. Decide to make them and their ideas obsolete. Create a better path forward despite them.

Last weekend, I attended the Association of American Physicians and Surgeons (AAPS) annual conference, this year in Pittsburgh, PA. Of course, the events, illnesses, political exploitation, ongoing hysteria, mandates, coercions, etc. of the past 18+ months were recurring points of discussion.

Given the non-stop inundation of only the Approved Narrative of the Political-Media-Medical cabal, in combination with the censoring, blocking, canceling, doxxing and de-platforming of those with disallowed thought, questions and speech, it was refreshing to hear Dr. McCullough’s synthesis of data, personal research, observation and opinion. He is board certified in Internal Medicine and in Cardiology, as well as expert in a number of subspecialties. His professional publications in peer-reviewed journals approach 700. He has headed national medical organizations and worked in pharma. He loves a good immunization… but describes why the ones out there right now for this multi-variant virus are problematic.

Since the beginning of the pandemic, as he has sought early treatment options for his patients in order to keep them from progressing to extreme illness with the virus, and ending up in the hospital (where they are likely to die – mostly from mistreatment), his health network and medical organizations have disapproved of his refusal to merely parrot the provided talking points and just push the unproved novel therapies. His employment contract was non-renewed and his employer is suing him. His medical license is under investigation for “misinformation” to the public. He has been defamed by the mainstream press and social media platforms.

I have been aware of Dr. McCullough for several months and have watched some of his testimony to state and federal agencies, as well as some of his media appearances. His arguments already resonated with me. However, after listening to him and viewing his presentation and documentation in person, for over an hour, I now find the man to be an impressive human that is contributing greatly to Society at great personal expense. If 10% of our medical, media and political communities were so honest and brave, we could likely have saved at least tens of thousands of lives, removed the lever of divisiveness and manipulation used against the Public to the advantage of the Powerful, and avoided trillions of dollars of misspent and lost economic prosperity in lockdowns, stimulus, bailouts, debt, failed supply chains, unemployment, etc… which all remains to be understood and calculated through the coming years.

Do yourself a favor and give Dr. McCullough’s thoughts an opportunity to challenge what you think you absolutely know to be true. It is that Arrogance of Certainty that dooms us to a fixed path that cannot possibly get us to the promised destination… like all of the political and narrative promises that habitually persuade and intimidate into unquestioned obedience.

A moral and ethical thought experiment based on headline issues of the day: What is the parallel between abortion being illegal by government decree (or not legal to be funded by tax dollars), and the mandate to receive certain medical therapies? One may be prohibited. The other prescribed. Might the moral construct be similar? You are not permitted to make a choice for yourself, your body, your future on the basis of The Good (or The Preference) of Society, The Many. Autonomy (Self-Determination) vs. Social Justice (or Societal Good).

One may argue that there are negative societal effects from either situation and choice. Some do not want to pay for actions that they consider unhealthy, immoral, unethical, harmful. Some demand actions by or upon another that per their belief systems or convictions avoid similar negative outcomes.

As a corollary, if you have a child that you are poorly prepared to care for, educate, mentor, support, etc, then you create a negative effect on society – financially, socially, systemically. (One could also make the climate change argument). Writ large, what is the effect of billions of persons added to the planet under these conditions?

Conversely, what if society could simply decide that You are not fit for parenting, or that society is harmed by the addition of your offspring… such that abortion becomes a prescribed treatment for you? Or mandatory sterilization? (Read up on that history.) Or the ready removal of your offspring to be raised by The State due to your “unfit” status – which might be determined by political affiliation?

What is the moral/ethical distinction between forced (or prohibited) reproductive therapies versus other mandated medical therapies? The rationales might be the same. In fact, the harms of the addition of billions of poorly raised children are potentially more negatively impactful (numerically and longer term) upon Society and The Planet than the current viral threat. For every forced medical therapy upon a certain person, should that entitle that person to make a mandate upon another until no one can cause anyone any potential negative societal consequence… in the name of equality and fairness?

It is interesting to witness the cognitive dissonance and philosophic gymnastics to claim My Body/My Choice in one arena by those of varying political and moral convictions, while denying it to others. “But you can harm ME by not receiving The Therapy!” Yes, but you and your offspring may harm me and all of society in many other ways.

Do we devolve into a society of blame, fear, hatred, vengeance, coercion and violence in the pursuit of Absolute Control and Safety? How much CAN be controlled? Down to what small, personal levels of choice,… and to what global, geographic extents? And at what cost? Or is it a more enlightened path to permit others to live their lives as long as they do not directly harm us, to live to mutual benefit by voluntary association, to avoid the costs and consequences of coercion, to seek out calm discourse and understanding, and to ultimately mind our own business?

Hard choices for many. Given concepts like non-aggression, the harms of mob rule, and unintended consequences, the choices become clearer. – mtr

Our worldviews tend to be infinitesimally small and skewed, especially when we do not read to understand history, travel to experience and witness the lives of others, or purposefully contemplate the limitless ways in which we may think incompletely and incorrectly. How many societal, familial and personal ills might be corrected by breaking down the arrogance of ignorance and the errors of our certainties? – mtr

Great video and article that Glenn Greenwald put up on his substack yesterday. In them, he points out that society has heretofore been well-adapted at performing cost-benefit analyses when considering public policy. A very good analogy he uses is that of speed limits.

Auto accidents are a leading cause of death in the US, particularly among the young and middle aged. Why do we allow high speed limits? Or teenagers to drive? Why not set the limit at 25 mph? Or apply a limit of one vehicle per family? Of course, we do not because there are extensive trade-offs and benefits of efficient and abundant transportation – economic, social, personal,…. Why, in the current multi-year Viral Crisis is it unacceptable to have an open discourse about the negative externalities of lockdowns, or the potential limitations and risks of increasingly-mandated medical therapies? We’ve heard from the beginning, “if it saves one life…!” Stop driving, and you could save many, many lives.

“In virtually every realm of public policy, Americans embrace policies which they know will kill people, sometimes large numbers of people. They do so not because they are psychopaths but because they are rational: they assess that those deaths that will inevitably result from the policies they support are worth it in exchange for the benefits those policies provide. This rational cost-benefit analysis, even when not expressed in such explicit or crude terms, is foundational to public policy debates — except when it comes to COVID, where it has been bizarrely declared off-limits.”

Worth a read and/or watch!

The Covid thing just never ends. It’s almost as distressing as the political exploitation and associated mob hysteria. I ran across physicist Scott Locklin’s blog and his take on the errors and uncertainties that have been sold as unassailable doctrine by government and corporate controllers. His style is brash and offensive, and refreshing. His list of Things the Establishment Got Wrong About Wuhan Coof needs to be considered and preserved. We’re far from out of the wealth- and power-generating (for the select few) crisis. We’ll be sifting data and dealing with negative externalities of the interventions for years. Mr. Locklin’s take is a good mid-stream assessment.

I know, I know. EVERYBODY has to write about BTC these days. But, I get to offer my two cents on my own webpage,… so suck it. As of current writing, BTC to USD exchange is roughly $55,000. So, my two cents is only worth 0.0000003531 BTC.

I bought a depressingly small amount of BTC a few years back. Had I been more enlightened, I’d be retired with my gains. Ultimately, the message that I want to convey is that I am a BTC supporter by way of philosophy and free market economics, as opposed to investment, per se. I am not chasing a gain. I am looking for a life raft.

Like precious metals, BTC is a diversification strategy and an insurance policy. Of course, it could go to zero and fail. That’s fine. Compared with the trajectory of the US dollar, I’ll take those risks. In reality, my diversification across contrarian asset classes is merely a risk mitigation strategy.

BTC is admittedly a fiat currency – it is not tied to, based upon or backed by any asset. I’m okay with that. In that regard, it is no different from any world currency. The difference, which is its brilliance, is that it cannot be expanded ad infinitum, without limit, digitally diluted and devalued, printed up by a central bank or government to be used to pay its bills and unfunded obligations while destroying the savings and purchasing power of the currency. It is DECENTRALIZED. BTC has a finite and decreasing ability to expand. It has boundaries, rules, limits. The dollar does not. No world currency does. Maybe something better than BTC will come along. Wonderful. For now, it is useful to me for its potential.

Yes, BTC is very volatile, with extreme gains (and some losses) in recent months and years. It can bounce in exchange value by 10-20% in a very short amount of time. Again, I’m okay with that. I’m holding the digital asset for a longer term (as well as buying small amounts biweekly even at high valuations now) and taking a risk that it will retain some value in the future. I am taking a risk that BTC will be an exchangeable currency for the purchase of goods and services, as well as potentially a store of some value. As a caveat, I would never “invest” an amount of my earnings (and my family’s finances) into BTC or other risky asset that, were I to lose all of it, would result in financial hardship.

However, it is just that risk of the financial hardship brought about by dollar dependency that drives my interest in BTC. Given the fiat nature of national currencies, the extreme monetary expansion, the “money printing” (although now digital), the unfathomable national debt and stimulus and bailouts, the likelihood of negative interest rates for bank savings and checking accounts in the US (as is already the case elsewhere), the nosebleed over-valuations of stock market bubbles based on stagnant real valuations as corporations and individuals dump money there trying to chase a gain that can no longer be acquired by saving, the risk of inflation (dollar devaluation and declining purchasing power), the probability of government “digital currencies” which will only be “fiat on steroids” with the removal of ANY limiting factors for expansion mixed with the potential for some extreme controls on how/where that “money” might be tracked and spent,… I’m looking to de-dollarize where able. Most of this diversification is into precious metals which can be done with private storage in national and international depositories, rolling retirement funds into precious metals IRAs, cautiously investing in stock market funds which hold actual metals (do your due diligence to avoid “paper metals”), holding some metals in a safe deposit box.

I came across an insightful article that summarized my approach to BTC this week: Mark E. Jeftovic’s “We’re In A Bubble That’s Too Big To Fail.” One of the specific quotes Mr. Jeftovic lists from a prior article commentarian (unattributed to the anonymous but apparently brilliant author, unfortunately) was spot on for my view! [Unattributed Author, can we be friends? I like you very much.]

“I had the thought that Bitcoin is like a hole in the wall of a burning building. The burning building is the petrodollar. The Bitcoin hole in the wall doesn’t meet any standard definition of a door. It wouldn’t pass a building inspection and it may not last long. It will most certainly be replaced by something else in the long run. But in the short term, no one inside that burning building really cares about any of that and the ones that first smelled smoke are already pouring through it. Many more will follow and some, sadly, will die in the fire. There are other exits from the building too, some may be safer than others, but the most important thing is getting out of the burning building as quickly as possible.”

As time permits this morning, I’ll add a few extra thoughts and graphs on the financial trajectory of the dollar, but the above is enough to illustrate the point.

Here’s a graph from the Federal Reserve’s Economic Data (FRED), as shared by a seekingalpha article discussing inflation risks. M1 is the amount of readily spendable currency (cash and checking account balances, essentially. M2 would include M1+ other funding that can be quickly made liquid, like savings accounts and money markets… now, we’re not even going to get into Fractional Reserve Banking wherein banks only have about 3% of the funds that are claimed as balances… so don’t you all run out to get your non-existent money!… which, BTW, ZH quote: “The FDIC only has $109 billion to insure the entire $13 trillion US banking system. That’s less than 1%!” But, I digress.)

Note the massive increase in M1 recently. The ongoing argument is about why inflation (significant price increases, falls in purchasing power, devaluation) has not been a problem. Most answers seem to revolve around a declining “velocity” of money – in essence, people and corporations are parking, or sitting on, their cash. The money isn’t being used in the market, exchanging hands. Another time, we’ll have to analyze why it takes so much money printing to actually fend off “deflation.” If/when that parked money starts to be mobilized with velocity, and floods the market with trillions of dollars,….

Here’s a graph of the perpetually rising national debt of the US. That debt is now well above 100% of GNP (see that ratio trend here). Obviously, the debt cannot be repaid. That does not appear to be a goal, in the slightest, regardless of administration.

Can debt be “managed” forever?

At what point do interest payment obligations eat into the available funds?

What rate of money expansion is too much?

When do other countries decide that buying American bonds (Treasuries) will pay them less in stability and interest than the declining value of those bonds held over time (inflation adjusted return)?

What happens if/when enough Treasuries cannot be sold to keep supplying the rising debt requirements?

By continuing to digitally expand the dollar into an ever-increasing pool of M1, what are the devaluation/inflation risks when “velocity” changes?

If the government can increase M1 by trillions in a given year, as well as take on perpetual national debt, (exceeding total tax revenues from the public – estimated at $3.86T for 2021), then why not just eliminate taxation altogether and fund all of the government’s programs and expenditures through money expansion – which is argued by mainstream economists to have no negative economic effect?

When other countries tire of having to do business in dollars for oil (petrodollars) and for most other international trade, and tire of being held hostage or embargoed by coercive and extortionist international policy and threat, then create their own systems outside of the post-WWII Bretton Woods monetary system imposed upon the entire globe, what will happen to the demand for dollars?

What happens when the dollar is no longer the World Reserve Currency? (Russia, China and other countries have been developing financial escape systems for some time.) The dollar has only been the dominant currency since the late 1940s.

What happens when the US Empire joins the history books with every other previous empire throughout the millenia of world history? Will that shift happen within our lifetimes? Within coming years? Some might argue that the peak has already taken place, the trajectory is now retraction, and the bubble burst is upon us. The Soviets didn’t foresee the demise of their Empire in the late 1980s, but theirs fell apart very quickly – almost overnight.

With such a massive level of debt, global military occupation and policing effort, and untenable domestic and international liabilities, how quickly might the American Bubble burst, forcing us all into uncomfortable adjustments?

Prepare well, friends.

The coronavirus pandemic has been in play for over a year with over 500,000 deaths in the US being attributed to the virus, or associated with a positive test. (see worldometers.info data, and a number of other sites). Details of cases, deaths, lockdowns, vaccines, economic costs, social fallout, etc. will be teased out for years. Given the level of politicization and bias witnessed in official responses, data and debate, gaining a clear insight into reality will be difficult. “Following the Science” can apparently mean all kinds of contradictory claims these days. What should be one of the most objective fields of study, Medicine, has been politicized and emotionalized to the point of annoyance and abuse.

I have written several blogs along the timeline of this experience, here, here and here in an attempt to understand and document. My impression from the beginning has been that the lockdowns have been excessive and will have significant monetary and non-monetary costs to persons and society (unemployment, personal and national debt – into the many trillions of dollars, unsought or unavailable medical care, depression, social isolation) that could exceed the death toll from the virus. Again, this will be an ongoing debate for a long time to come.

Interestingly, I personally tested positive with COVID in early January 2021 via a PCR nasal swab. My symptoms were primarily mild headache, intermittent chills, low grade fever (less than 100.5 F), and muscle aches that lasted a week or so. I had about a week of greatly reduced taste and smell, which resolved completely. For a respiratory virus, oddly, I never had any significant respiratory symptoms: no shortness of breath, cough or runny nose. Anecdotally, I would classify my experience as a mild to moderate viral syndrome. I’ve certainly had much, much worse. I was able to walk the dogs every day (in the woods, away from people… so don’t have a conniption).

Viral case numbers and deaths looked to have peaked on/around January 8, 2021. Of note, at that point, roughly 6.7 million doses of vaccines had been administered. So, it looks like whatever impact the vaccines will have, the trend had peaked before a significant portion of the 330M American population received a dose,… or the two doses, which have been required to be considered immunized. (6.7M/330M = 2.03% of the population, if each single dose represented an immunized individual, although it may represent half that number of persons, receiving two doses, or 1% of the population.)

Of particular interest to me, now that there is more data, is to tease out what differences (or lack thereof) could be attributed to harsh lockdowns: forced business closures, closed schools, and social distancing mandates. Clearly, some US states took very different approaches. Georgia, for example, was ridiculed and shamed in The Atlantic back in April 2020, for not locking down… “An Experiment in Human Sacrifice.” Jeffrey Tucker wrote an insightful article in December 2020, at the American Institute for Economic Research which discusses how all of the horrible death and destruction did NOT happen in Georgia to the extent that it did in some locked down states. Potentially, as a direct result, that state’s economy is doing very well in comparison to its locked down counterparts.

DataUSA offers an interactive graphing tool to compare states’ data. I wanted to see how low to no lockdown states (e.g. FL, GA, TX) have done in comparison with strict lockdown states (e.g. CA, NY, MI, PA) with regard to deaths per 100,000 population. FL 147, GA 164, TX 149 – compared to CA 131, MI 165, PA 187, NY 196. For mortality, California did the best and New York did the worst. Following the graphs and numbers, I would have to outright reject anyone’s argument that locked down states showed any significant improvement in mortality over those that did not lock down. How much was (mis)spent financially, socially, politically in the endeavor?

Internationally, I’ve been interested in Sweden. Along the path, Sweden has been both a beacon and a pariah, depending on the time frame and the reporting outlet. At the year mark, however, Sweden appears to have done well in comparison to strict lockdown counterparts, like the UK, although Sweden’s neighbors did even better, with a mix of government interventions. From worldometers.info, Sweden’s deaths per 100K have been 123, and the UK 180 to date, following similar graphing trends.

There is much more to analyze. There will be ongoing debate about herd immunity, vaccine efficacies, immunity passports, masking, and on and on. From what I am seeing with the data here regarding lockdown severity vs mortality, my personal opinion is that I would prefer to be in a non-lockdown state in the future, where civil liberties and economic opportunities will not be trampled by state/government actors via destructive, emotional, politicized, and poorly-evidenced interventions.