Sweden as a Voice of Reason Amidst COVID Hysteria

Lockdowns continue in most of the world. While some states in the US are moving towards phased opening of businesses, others have extended lockdowns to as late as July 5, 2020. The economic fallout continues with record unemployment and underemployment (including in the health care sector), $trillions in new federal debt this quarter, disruptions and massive spoilage in food supplies, people are being fined and even arrested for violating local laws against commerce and associations,….

There continues to be much emotional and political argument about correct approaches. There is fear that phasing out the extreme distancing laws and guidelines will lead to increased viral transmission and death – second and third waves which could yet overwhelm. Lockdowns and social distancing are treated by many as religious tenets, not to be breached or challenged, regardless of logic, reason and/or scientific data. It is socially unacceptable to introduce information and opinion contrary to government and media guidance. Social media and Youtube have censored, deleted and de-platformed opposing opinions, articles, interviews and videos, labeling them as fake or false information, placing themselves as arbiters of truth.

Not all countries have followed such extreme distancing and lockdown measures. Sweden has been one that has mostly allowed life to proceed without forced economic and social shutdowns. There are distancing measures, like reduced capacity in restaurants, encouraging distance between persons, limiting gatherings to fewer than 50 people, encouraging hygiene, isolating the elderly and ill, etc. But, their kids go to school and people are permitted to work. They don’t fine and arrest for violations of commerce or association.

Sweden’s fatality rate from the virus has been higher than some countries that have enforced draconian lockdowns, but lower than some other countries. No country or person is protected 100%. There is risk. Sweden, however, has also seemed to better analyze the costs of their approach, avoiding the economic devastation that the US, in particular, has imposed upon itself. Perhaps needlessly. Or criminally.

Following Sweden’s case fatality rate shows that their curve seemed to have peaked two weeks ago, around April 23, per worldometers.info’s Sweden CV-19 page today. The entire “flatten the curve” social distancing/lockdown paradigm that most of the world has pursued was based on an avoidance of overwhelming the capacity of health care resources, hospitals, ventilators, ICU beds, personal protective equipment. Well, there ya go. Sweden accomplished that without devastating the 99.8% of the population who didn’t die of COVID. Sure, this is just one country for comparison, but it is information, evidence, data.

Maybe the COVID hysteria was and is misplaced. Maybe it was correct to take extreme measures against an unknown, initially. Maybe as reasoning human beings there is a duty to consider new information, to have a high degree of skepticism for those actions (like lockdowns) that cause significant harm to persons and society, to look outside of stringent paradigms for other answers and approaches. Maybe the high emotion is interfering with discourse, processing, adaptation. Maybe we have become too dependent on politicians, media and systems of perceived authority for our information, opinions and direction. Maybe it’s okay to question, to push back, to ridicule the ridiculous.

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Addendum: South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore and Japan have also been less restrictive in their approach. Per Business Insider and multiple other sources, “South Korea successfully flattened the curve on COVID-19 in 20 days without enforcing extreme draconian measures that restrict freedom and movement of people,” although they did track the infected with cell phone location to assure quarantine cooperation. That would surely bother many civil libertarians. Regardless, aside from public school and some high density business location closures (like gyms), people have been able to work and move about. Korea focused on broad testing, communication with the public about areas of exposure, and isolation of the at-risk and ill. Worldometers’ data shows Korean deaths peaked around March 28.

*Of note, I have not followed “number of cases” diagnosed. Testing rates have been too unstable to rely upon for disease spread. Deaths are a bit more definitive, and can be trended more accurately. Of course, at least in the US, a positive COVID test is not even required for the disease to be listed as a cause on the death certificate.